sorry, which part do you find hard to beleive?
as for 500 point lists being easy to predict, to an extent many are - and i bet i can write one you aren't expecting
probably wont be too good, but...
regardless though, the main requirement for newb friendly is that the army not be too difficult to understand - dwarfs are pretty standard with only really the runes rules causing an issue, and even that isn't too complicated.